Nigeria's march toward fuel self-sufficiency hit a speed bump in May, as marketers turned back to foreign suppliers to cover a gap that domestic refineries, for one month at least, could not fully close.
Petrol imports rose sharply by 59.5% in May after months of decline, as oil marketers increased purchases from foreign suppliers despite rising output from domestic refineries, according to data obtained from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority. The latest Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Statistics showed that average daily imports of Premium Motor Spirit increased from 3.7 million litres per day in April to 5.9 million litres per day in May.
The trigger was not weak local refining. It was a feedstock shortfall. The increase came as crude oil supply to domestic refineries declined during the period, with crude receipts falling from 612,000 barrels per day in April to 578,000 barrels per day in May, a 5.6% decline.
Despite the feedstock dip, total fuel availability still improved. Total PMS supply increased by 6.8%, rising from 44.4 million litres per day in April to 47.4 million litres per day in May. Domestic refineries supplied 41.5 million litres daily, representing approximately 88% of the total national supply, while imports accounted for 5.9 million litres daily.
The longer trend remains firmly in favour of domestic supply, which puts May's spike in proper context. An analysis of fuel supply patterns between January and May reveals the growing contribution of domestic refineries to Nigeria's fuel market, with petrol imports having fallen by approximately 76% since January despite the temporary rebound recorded in May. Imported petrol volumes fell from 24.8 million litres per day in January to 5.9 million litres per day in May, while domestic refinery contributions rose from 40.1 million litres per day to 41.5 million litres per day over the same stretch.
Diesel told a strikingly different story in the same month. Total diesel supply rose from 10.2 million litres per day in April to 18.8 million litres per day in May, an 84.3% increase, with all diesel supplied in May coming entirely from domestic sources as imports dropped from 1.7 million litres per day in April to zero.
The quarterly value data underscores how dramatically the import bill itself has shrunk even with May's volume rebound. Nigeria's petrol import bill declined to ₦87.40 billion in Q1 2026 from ₦3.54 trillion in Q4 2025, a slump of about 97.5%. Petrol's share of total imports shrank to 0.64% in Q1 2026 from 13.64% in Q1 2025, removing it from the list of the top 10 imported products for the quarter.
The takeaway from May is less a reversal than a reminder. Nigeria's long-term ambition of eliminating petrol imports remains achievable but will depend largely on the operational stability of domestic refineries and the availability of crude feedstock. The sharp increase in May imports serves as a reminder that refinery capacity alone is insufficient without a reliable crude supply and efficient market coordination. Capacity has been built. Consistency is the part still being proven.
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