Nigeria's headline inflation rate rose to 15.93% year-on-year in May 2026, marking the third consecutive monthly increase, according to figures released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). The latest reading represents a 24-basis-point jump from April's 15.69%, extending a streak that has seen inflation climb steadily from 15.38% in March.
The persistent uptick has been largely driven by rising food prices, with analysts pointing to pre-harvest supply tightening pushing up the cost of staples such as maize, sorghum, paddy rice, and soya beans. This pressure has continued despite a broader rebasing of Nigeria's Consumer Price Index, which had initially brought headline figures down sharply from the previous methodology's readings above 30%.
Global factors have compounded the domestic squeeze. Middle East tensions, including Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz since February 2026, have restricted oil-laden vessels and rattled energy markets. While Nigeria has benefited as an oil-producing nation from elevated crude prices, the removal of the petrol subsidy has left ordinary Nigerians grappling with higher pump prices, which feed directly into transportation and food costs.
For millions of households already battling a punishing cost-of-living crisis, the latest figures offer little relief. With around 63% of Nigerians living in poverty, according to the IMF, every fraction of a percentage point increase in food prices translates into harder choices at the dinner table.
Core inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, had eased in April, easing to 15.86% from 16.21% in March, driven by softer prices in education, clothing, and health services. Whether that core moderation continued into May remains to be seen, though the headline number suggests food remains the dominant driver of price pressure.
The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) now faces a delicate balancing act. After months of aggressive monetary tightening aimed at taming inflation, the renewed upward trend could complicate any plans to ease interest rates, even as businesses and consumers continue to call for cheaper credit to stimulate growth.
Economists say the coming months will be critical. If food prices continue climbing through the harvest season, Nigeria's inflation trajectory could threaten the government's broader economic stability targets, putting renewed pressure on policymakers to address supply-side bottlenecks rather than relying solely on interest rate policy.
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