The Middle East war is now writing itself into Morocco's cost of living, and the April inflation figures make that story uncomfortably clear.
Morocco's annual inflation rate, measured by the consumer price index, rose to 1.7% in April 2026, almost double the 0.9% recorded in March, according to the national statistics agency. Food prices rose 0.6% year-on-year while non-food prices climbed 2.5%, with transport prices surging 8.4%, the sharpest sectoral increase driven directly by a fuel price spike linked to the conflict in the Middle East.
The fuel story began in earnest in mid-March. By April 1, diesel and gasoline costs had jumped by MAD 1.70 and MAD 1.57 per litre respectively, pushing prices to around MAD 14.49 for diesel and MAD 15.49 for gasoline with cumulative hikes over less than two weeks reaching MAD 3.70 for diesel and MAD 3.01 for gasoline, fuelling criticism over opaque pricing mechanisms and triggering supply disruptions at service stations across the country.
The structural vulnerability behind these numbers is acute. Morocco imports more than 90% of its energy needs, making it among the most exposed economies in Africa and the Middle East to global price volatility. Energy Minister Leila Benali has described the current situation as comparable to the major oil shocks of the 1970s, warning that the scale may be even greater.
Bank Al-Maghrib has signalled that inflation could gradually increase through 2026 and 2027 if oil prices remain elevated, and has projected the current account deficit could widen to around 3.1% of GDP in 2026, largely attributable to higher energy import costs.
The government is moving to contain the damage. Authorities plan to add 20 billion dirhams ($2.17 billion) to the 2026 budget, including increased subsidies to keep public transport, cooking gas, and electricity prices stable. Public support for fuel subsidies is already costing around 1.6 billion dirhams per month.
The longer-term response is structural. Morocco approved 2.7 gigawatts of new renewable energy capacity in early 2026 alone, with renewables now accounting for 46% of installed electricity capacity, while the government accelerates plans for expanded storage capacity and strategic projects, including the Nigeria-Morocco gas pipeline.
Core inflation, which excludes more volatile goods and government-controlled prices, was down 0.3% year-on-year and up just 0.1% month-on-month, suggesting that underlying demand pressures remain contained for now, even as energy-driven headline inflation accelerates. How long that distinction holds will depend entirely on how long the war in the Middle East lasts.
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