The numbers do not flatter. Nigeria borrowed nearly ₦12 trillion in nine months and directed barely a quarter of it to the infrastructure that borrowing was supposed to build.
The Federal Government accessed ₦11.89 trillion in total debt financing in the first nine months of 2025, comprising ₦7.08 trillion in domestic borrowing and ₦4.81 trillion in multilateral and bilateral project-tied loans, according to the Budget Office of the Federation's Third Quarter 2025 Budget Implementation Report. Yet actual capital expenditure over the same period amounted to just ₦3.10 trillion, representing 26.07% of total financing receipts.
The implication is direct and uncomfortable: for every ₦100 Nigeria borrowed, only ₦26 found its way into roads, power infrastructure, hospitals, or schools. The rest was absorbed by recurrent expenditure, debt servicing, and operational overhead.
Debt service is the most relentless competitor for every naira raised. In the 2026 fiscal framework, debt service alone is projected to cost ₦15.81 trillion, split between ₦10.16 trillion for domestic obligations and ₦5.36 trillion for foreign debt, consuming 42.9% of the ₦36.87 trillion in projected revenue before a single capital project is funded.
The borrowing appetite has only grown since. The Federal Government raised its 2026 borrowing plan to ₦29.2 trillion following an expansion of the proposed budget to ₦68.32 trillion, creating a fiscal deficit of ₦31.46 trillion, an increase of ₦11.31 trillion from the earlier ₦17.89 trillion projection. The Senate approved a fresh $6 billion external loan request in April 2026, a move that analysts warned would push Nigeria's debt-to-revenue ratio to unsustainable levels. Total debt stock is now projected to hit ₦155.1 trillion.
The cost of that debt mountain is escalating. Nigeria is projected to spend approximately $11.6 billion on debt servicing in 2026, representing nearly half of projected revenue and a 130% increase from 2025 levels.
Critics have been blunt. According to projections cited by opposition figures, Nigeria could spend over N15 trillion on debt servicing in 2026 alone, with high debt servicing costs chronically crowding out spending on infrastructure, healthcare, education, and security.
Economists are warning that the structural path is unsustainable. Dr. Muda Yusuf cautioned: "We need to worry about debt sustainability… high levels of deficits can choke the fiscal space," adding that rising deficits risk triggering inflation and pushing Nigeria into a debt trap.
The paradox at the centre of Nigeria's fiscal story is now clearly drawn: a government borrowing at record scale, ostensibly to build, but delivering capital investment at a pace that bears no relationship to the debt being accumulated. Without a structural correction in revenue mobilisation, expenditure prioritisation, and project execution, each new loan tranche will simply perpetuate the cycle.
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